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A critical moment for Dorian is hours away

The future of Dorian largely hinges on one key factor called the Mona Passage. This 80-mile wide ocean corridor, which sits between the islands of Hispañiola and Puerto Rico, will determine if Dorian dissipates or perseveres. The storm is now located in the Caribbean, a small storm surrounded by a hostile environment of abundant dry air.

Regardless of impact, Wednesday night is a critical moment for the future of Dorian and its eventual impact on Florida. At that time, the core of Dorian will either move over Puerto Rico, over the Dominican Republic, or in between the two, through the narrow waters of the Mona Passage.

If the core of Dorian moves slightly west of there, over the center of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, it will encounter towering mountainous terrain with elevations over 5,000 feet. That would destroy the storm’s structure and circulation, crippling the system as it enters the Bahamas. It would have a hard time putting the pieces back together and strengthening before its arrival this weekend in Florida.

However, if Dorian’s core threads the needle between the islands and passes over, or near, the narrow Mona Passage, then the storm’s core and circulation will remain structurally sound. In this scenario, the storm would be able to take advantage of the very warm water north of Puerto Rico, in the Turks & Caicos Islands and Bahamas, to potentially re-intensify.

A track over the island of Puerto Rico, to the east of the consensus forecast, would yield a scenario somewhere in the middle, where Dorians’ core would be weakened but not incapacitated.

— Jeff Berardelli