ORLANDO – Republican presidential hopefuls who once hoped to make their marks at a high-profile conservative political conference this weekend hit a last-minute roadblock.
Donald Trump decided to show up.
Trump’s appearance Sunday at the Conservative Political Action Conference – his first speech since his norm-busting presidency ended on Jan. 20 – now dominates the annual event at which conservative activists will plot the future of their movement.
That future, for the time being, revolves around a vocal ex-president, despite opposition from “establishment” Republicans, two impeachments, last year’s election loss to now-President Joe Biden, and a failed insurrection just last month.
For those eyeing a White House run, they now find themselves in the unenviable position of having to compete for attendees’ attention with a still-popular former president.
Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman and a conservative critic of the former president, described Trump’s CPAC appearance as “his first real attempt to flex that muscle again. He’s the GOP boss, everyone must kiss his ring. That’s what he’ll reaffirm.”
Trump “obviously misses public adoration,” Walsh said. “He’ll feed off of that, and he’ll make clear in his speech that the Republican Party is his.”
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GOP ‘split between the governing faction and the populist faction’
This year’s CPAC meeting, a premier conservative event for more than a half-century that kicks off Friday, comes as the Republican Party is divided between those who want to stick with Trump and those who want to move forward without all of his political baggage.
Last week, Trump launched a notably harsh attack on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, calling him a “a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack.” McConnell, who has questioned whether Trump should still lead the party, condemned his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection even as he voted to acquit the ex-president in this month’s Senate impeachment trial.
Rep. Liz Cheney, one of the ten House Republicans who vote for Trump’s impeachment in January, said this week that the ex-president should not be part of the GOP’s future.
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and consultant, sees the split as one between a “pro-governing” wing of the party and the “pro-populist” wing.
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The populists, he said, are more interested in being anti-establishment, anti-immigrant, and anti-media. Trump fused those people into a force that won the Electoral College in 2016, but could not get him over the top in 2020.
Now, “the Republican Party is seriously split between the governing faction and the populist faction,” Ayres said, and CPAC “will be a celebration of the populist faction.”
Mitt Romney, the party’s 2012 presidential nominee and one of seven Republican senators to vote to convict Trump at his latest impeachment trial, has lamented Trump’s continuing support among Republicans, saying this week that if Trump ran again in 2024, he would likely win the GOP nomination.
“I look at the polls,” Romney said, “and the polls show that among the names being floated as potential contenders in 2024, if you put President Trump in there among Republicans, he wins in a landslide.”
Trump (and others) look at 2024
Few people expect Trump to declare his 2024 candidacy in his Sunday speech – most expect him to tease a run for months or years, if only to keep attention on himself.
Instead, Trump is more likely to attack Biden, continue to make false claims about the election, condemn Republicans who backed impeachment, and perhaps talk about ongoing feuds with establishment party members like McConnell and Cheney.
“I don’t expect him to change his style,” said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida.
Trump’s election protests helped inspire a mob of protesters to attack the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, the day Congress counted the electoral votes that elected Biden. The House impeached Trump for inciting an insurrection but the Senate acquitted him, lacking the two-thirds vote necessary for conviction.
More:Defeated and impeached, Trump still commands the loyalty of the GOP’s voters
The other Republicans speaking and eyeing a 2024 run must now consider how forthcoming to be before CPAC delegates, given Trump’s conference-ending appearance. Do they distance themselves from Trump’s rhetoric or pull themselves closer in alignment?
The wannabe candidates will just have to grin and bear it in their speeches, analysts said, and wait for months as Trump decides whether to announce another campaign.
“They are going to have to pledge fealty and loyalty and love for him,” Walsh said. “They all hope he doesn’t run again. For the next three years, he will make it seem like he’s going to run again – so because of that tough spot … the best path is to suck up to him. That will best position them to be his heir.”
This year’s CPAC speakers who are suspected of harboring presidential ambitions include:
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will give the welcoming speech;
- Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., whose national security speech is entitled “Keeping America Safe”;
- Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who plans to discuss religious freedom;
- Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., rebuked by many for his support of Trump’s election protests, but popular with members of the ex-president’s political base;
- South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who is seeking to build name recognition;
- Mike Pompeo, talking about his foreign policy record as Trump’s secretary of state; and
- Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a runner-up to Trump during the 2016 Republican primaries. Cruz also has been criticized for backing Trump’s election protests – and for recently traveling to Mexico while his state suffered electricity blackouts from severe winter storms.
While Trump remains popular in the party, a lot can happen between now and 2024, including potential legal trouble for Trump. This past week, the Supreme Court rejected his last-minute bid to shield financial records from a grand jury that is investigating his past financial dealings. Prosecutors are also said to be examining his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection.
“There’s so much uncertainty,” MacManus said.
A Trumpian program at CPAC and a launch pad for candidates
Organizers of CPAC put together a four-day program that looks rather Trumpian, hitting on several of the former president’s favorite grievances. The event will feature speeches and appearances by a smattering of current and former lawmakers, radio and television talk show hosts, and leaders of various conservative organizations.
The conference in Orlando, Fla., began with receptions on Thursday night, and ends with Trump’s speech Sunday afternoon.
In between, a series of no less than seven panels are devoted to “Protecting Elections,” a phrase Trump allies use when promoting unproven claims of election fraud in Trump’s loss to Biden.
Other CPAC panels are devoted to conservative visions of law enforcement, civil rights, gun rights, religious freedom, abortion, energy policy, economic opportunity and Middle East peace. Speakers also plan to denounce “political correctness” at the CPAC conference that is dubbed “America Uncanceled.”
CPAC usually meets in the Washington, D.C., area, but last year’s conference spawned a COVID-19 outbreak. This year, organizers decided to hold the event in Florida, a state with fewer restrictions on large gatherings.
First held in 1974, CPAC has propelled many conservative politicians. Two groups created the conference, the American Conservative Union and Young Americans for Freedom. The keynote speaker that first year was an aspiring presidential candidate named Ronald Reagan.
Trump’s speech to CPAC in 2011 amplified talk of a presidential bid by the New York-based businessman, but he passed on a challenge to President Barack Obama in 2012.
In that CPAC appearance a decade ago, Trump hit themes he would repeat in his 2016 campaign and subsequent presidency. With Obama in the White House, Trump said the U.S. was becoming “the laughing stock of the world,” and that China and other countries “are screwing us.”
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Trump also spoke at CPAC during his presidency, appearances that included literal hugs of the American flag.
Two years ago, Trump wrapped his arms around the flag on stage at CPAC and said, “I love you, baby.”
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